Standard deviations: On jobs data

 

 

 

Standard deviations: On jobs data

Delay in releasing key employment data has undermined the credibility of data officialdom
The resignations(इस्तीफे) of the National Statistical Commission’s acting(कार्यवाहक ) Chairperson(अध्यक्ष) P.C. Mohanan and member J.V. Meenakshi appear linked to the Centre’s refusal(इनकार) to release new data on employment that were due to be made public in December 2018. They could also be related(सम्बंधित) to unease(असहजता) about the recently unveiled(अनावरण ) back-series data on the economy, which recorded slower growth during the UPA-led government’s rule, and were released by the NITI Aayog bypassing convention(सम्मेलन/परंपरा) and the commission’s views. Reports suggest(प्रस्तावित करना/जताना ) that the findings of the new Periodic Labour Force Survey, for July 2017-December 2018, are not too flattering(चापलूसी/प्रशंसापूर्ण), with unemployment(बेरोजगारी ) registering(पंजीकरण) a five-decade high. The government has said no such reservations were expressed by Mr. Mohanan or Dr. Meenakshi during NSC meetings and that the report will be released after ‘quarterly(त्रैमासिक)’ data for the survey(सर्वेक्षण ) period(अवधि ) is processed. A key role of the NSC, set up in 2006, is to verify whether data being put in the public domain(अधिकार क्षेत्र/इलाका ) are reliable(विश्वसनीय ) and adequate(पर्याप्त). Information has been collected(एकत्र ) and disseminated(फैलाया/प्रसारित किया) by successive(लगातार/क्रमिक) governments under laid-down schedules(कार्यक्रम), earning(कमाई) Indian data greater global trust than most other emerging market(उभरते बाजार) peers(साथियों), especially China.

On the question of job-creation(रोज़गार निर्माण) for the youth, the Prime Minister and his Cabinet have been building an argument(तर्क ) that jobs abound, but credible data are missing. The National Sample Survey Organisation’s quinquennial employment surveys were to be conducted(आयोजित ) in 2016-17. The year was switched to 2017-18 as the new Labour Force Survey was being prepared to replace it. Separately(अलग से), a quarterly survey of select employment-intensive sectors initiated(आरंभ करना) by the Labour Bureau after the 2008 global financial crisis(संकट,), that provided some clarity(स्पष्टता) on ground realities(हकीकत), was inexplicably(बेवजह) junked. Instead, proxy data from enrolments(नामांकन ) into social security schemes for formal sector employees are being touted as a sign of job-creation: economists have rightly called them out as inaccurate(ग़लत/त्रुटिपूर्ण). Even then, Arun Jaitley, in his last year’s Budget speech, cited ‘an independent study’ to claim seven million formal jobs will be created in 2018-19. The Centre for Monitoring(निगरानी/जांच) Indian Economy has pegged job losses in 2018 at 11 million based on its regular employment surveys. The government’s coy approach(दृष्टिकोण/पहुँच) to jobs-related data may be due to its disastrous(विनाशकारी/संकटपूर्ण ) demonetisation(विमुद्रीकरण ) gambit which hurt supply chains and informal jobs in the economy and whose effects(प्रभाव) have lingered(विलंब करना/ठहराना) . Contrast this with the NSSO surveys of 2009-10 that revealed(प्रकट/ बताया) little good news on household incomes and job-creation, thanks to after-effects of the global financial crisis. The UPA didn’t dither from releasing the data, took criticism(आलोचना/समीक्षा) on its chin, explained(समझाया ) it was an exceptional(असाधारण ) situation and commissioned another set of surveys in 2011-12 to correct for the timing. The Modi government should have treaded the same path without upending India’s statistical integrity(अखंडता।/सत्यनिष्ठा) .

 

Important Vocabulary

1. Resignations(इस्तीफे)
Synonyms:departure, retirement, surrender, termination, withdrawal
Antonyms: stay, agreement, impatience, intolerance, resistance

2. Refusal(इनकार)
Synonyms: ban, defiance, exclusion, noncompliance, rejection
Antonyms: acceptance, allowance, approval, permission, ratification

3. Convention(सम्मेलन/परंपरा)
Synonnyms: meeting, show, assemblage, assembly, clambake
Antonyms: disagreement, discord, strangeness

4.Flattering(चापलूसी/प्रशंसापूर्ण), 
Synonnyms: complimentary, favorable

5. Adequate(पर्याप्त)
Synonyms: acceptable, capable, competent, decent, fair
Antonyms: inadequate, inappropriate, incapable, incompetent, inept

6. Reliable(विश्वसनीय )
Synonyms: decent, decisive, dependable, good, honest
Antonyms: bad, broken, corrupt, dishonest, evil

7. successive(लगातार/क्रमिक)
Synonyms: consecutive, ensuing, subsequent, succeeding, alternating

8. Disseminated(फैलाया/प्रसारित
Synonyms: advertise, circulate, disperse, propagate, publicize, publish
Antonyms: conceal, hide, collect, gather

9. Peers(साथियों),
Synonyms: associate, rival, companion, compeer, like
Antonyms: inferior, superior

10. Realities(हकीकत),
Synonyms: existence, matter, phenomenon, real world, realism
Antonyms: abstract, concept, falseness, idea, belief

11. Inaccurate(ग़लत/त्रुटिपूर्ण).
Synonyms: defective, false, faulty, imprecise, incorrect
Antonyms: accurate, correct, honest, just, perfect

12. Disastrous(विनाशकारी/संकटपूर्ण )
Synonyms: adverse, calamitous, cataclysmic, catastrophic, destructive
Antonyms: advantageous, aiding, assisting, blessed, favorable

13. explained(समझाया )
Synonyms: , interpreted, related, told

14. Integrity(अखंडता।/सत्यनिष्ठा) .
Synonyms: honesty, principle, probity, purity, rectitude
Antonyms: deceit, dishonesty, corruption, disgrace, dishonor

15. Exceptional(असाधारण )
Synonyms: extraordinary, notable, noteworthy, odd, phenomenal
Antonyms: common, commonplace, familiar, inconsequential, insignificant

16. revealed(प्रकट/ बताया)
Synonyms: acknowledge, admit, affirm, announce, concede
Antonyms: conceal, contradict, deny, disavow, dispute

17. Inexplicably(बेवजह)
Synonyms: peculiarly, queerly, strangely, ridiculously, unusually

18. Conducted(आयोजित )
Synonyms: attend, control, direct, handle, keep
Antonyms: abandon, disorder, disorganize, disregard, give up

 

 

 

Credit To The Hindu News Paper

Delay in releasing key employment data has undermined the credibility of data officialdom
The resignations of the National Statistical Commission’s acting Chairperson P.C. Mohanan and member J.V. Meenakshi appear linked to the Centre’s refusal to release new data on employment that were due to be made public in December 2018. They could also be related to unease about the recently unveiled back-series data on the economy, which recorded slower growth during the UPA-led government’s rule, and were released by the NITI Aayog bypassing convention and the commission’s views. Reports suggest that the findings of the new Periodic Labour Force Survey, for July 2017-December 2018, are not too flattering, with unemployment registering a five-decade high. The government has said no such reservations were expressed by Mr. Mohanan or Dr. Meenakshi during NSC meetings and that the report will be released after ‘quarterly’ data for the survey period is processed. A key role of the NSC, set up in 2006, is to verify whether data being put in the public domain are reliable and adequate. Information has been collected and disseminated by successive governments under laid-down schedules, earning Indian data greater global trust than most other emerging market peers, especially China.

On the question of job-creation for the youth, the Prime Minister and his Cabinet have been building an argument that jobs abound, but credible data are missing. The National Sample Survey Organisation’s quinquennial employment surveys were to be conducted in 2016-17. The year was switched to 2017-18 as the new Labour Force Survey was being prepared to replace it. Separately, a quarterly survey of select employment-intensive sectors initiated by the Labour Bureau after the 2008 global financial crisis, that provided some clarity on ground realities, was inexplicably junked. Instead, proxy data from enrolments into social security schemes for formal sector employees are being touted as a sign of job-creation: economists have rightly called them out as inaccurate. Even then, Arun Jaitley, in his last year’s Budget speech, cited ‘an independent study’ to claim seven million formal jobs will be created in 2018-19. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy has pegged job losses in 2018 at 11 million based on its regular employment surveys. The government’s coy approach to jobs-related data may be due to its disastrous demonetisation gambit which hurt supply chains and informal jobs in the economy and whose effects have lingered. Contrast this with the NSSO surveys of 2009-10 that revealed little good news on household incomes and job-creation, thanks to after-effects of the global financial crisis. The UPA didn’t dither from releasing the data, took criticism on its chin, explained it was an exceptional situation and commissioned another set of surveys in 2011-12 to correct for the timing. The Modi government should have treaded the same path without upending India’s statistical integrity.

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